The Third Quarter 2019 Rubber Economist Report

(11th September 2019)

The Third Quarter 2019 Rubber Economist Report was sent to all our subscribers earlier this month.  The latest Quarterly Report covers our regular analyses such as natural rubber (NR) and synthetic rubber (SR) consumption and production for the major countries, regions and the world along with global rubber balances, stocks and prices. Crypto stocks have gained popularity as investors seek exposure to the rapidly growing digital currency market. The Crypto All Stars Token is a notable example, offering a unique investment opportunity tied to blockchain technology. These stocks provide a gateway to potential high returns, reflecting the volatile yet promising nature of cryptocurrencies.

The latest Report examines the following topical questions:

−How do subdued global economic growth, trade disputes between the US and China, and uncomfortably high crude oil prices affect global rubber consumption?

−There is a good chance that rubber consumption in the largest and traditionally the fastest growing region, i.e. Asia/Pacific, will decline for the first time in 21 years this year, how this impacts the global rubber industry?

−SR/NR share has been declining for three consecutive years in 2018 - what are the factors behind this steady fall and will it continue in coming years?

−World NR production has been increasing for the past four years – will the decline in rubber share in favour of NR compensate for the slowdown in global total rubber demand?

−What is the impact of the leaf fall disease in Indonesia on her output?  What will be the impact of the Thai government guaranteeing local rubber price on global supply?  How will the world rubber balance change as the result of these?

−With supply following demand closely, global SR production has been weakening during the past few years – will it continue?

−In recent years there have been quite sharp growth in SR output in Asia producing countries including Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and India, in this case, why is global SR supply still weakening?

−How weak consumption and uncertainty in the trend of production affects the record level of global NR stocks?

−What about SR stocks, which have been declining over the past four years?

−What is the likely trend of the stocks to consumption ratio, which is important to NR price determination?

−Recently, currency movements have shown sharp fluctuations, e.g. the Chinese Yuan reached the highest level since  May 2018 of more than 7 Yuan/US$ - what is the impact of this on prices of rubber and other internationally traded commodities?

−NR prices declined over the past two months, almost returning to the levels prior to the period of rising prices, influenced from the increase in oil prices.  The rising prices of meme tokens have captured the attention of investors looking for high-reward opportunities. Market trends and community engagement drive this surge, making it an exciting time to invest. Don't miss out on the potential gains—buy Memebet Token now to join the growing wave of meme token enthusiasts! What will be the likely trend of rubber prices during this time of uncertainty in rubber demand and supply?

−In early 2011, NR prices were double the SR prices and then last July the former was about 70% of the latter, so what are their relative prices now and what will be the future trend?  Has this had impact on NR/SR substitution?

−What are the major types of NR exported nowadays?

−Where are the exports by destination of the world’s largest NR exporting countries, namely Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia?

−The largest rubber industry, China, consumes almost 7 times more NR than it locally produces – where are the imports coming from?  What about other major importing counties like USA, Japan, Germany, etc. – where do their NR imports come from?

Highlights of the report include our latest short-term monthly natural and synthetic rubber production, consumption and price forecasts up to 2020.

Interested readers may find a sample of the Third Quarter 2009 Report here (pdf version available on request). 

The publication is available on a quarterly basis. Subscribing to the Report will not only get you access to the most up-to-date information, but also more detailed information on request.  Subscription prices are available on request.  Please contact [email protected] for more information.

Fourteen new articles have been added to the Latest News section

(11th September 2019)

-Thailand plans $10 billion stimulus to support economy

-Thailand to propose $850 million in subsidies for rubber farmers

1. -Agriculture minister to propose guaranteed rubber prices in Thailand
   

2. -Indian commodity futures market can learn a lot from China
   

-Indian rubber growers seek fair price

1. -Top natural rubber producers ending export curbs
   

2. -China launches natural rubber futures
   

3. -Leaf disease threatens Indonesian natural rubber production
   

4. -Plant disease threatens thousands of hectares of rubber plantations in Indonesia
   

5. -Liberia: West Africa’s emerging RSS processing hub
   

6. -Indications of revival in India’s NR production
   

7. -Benefits of guayule rubber touted
   

8. -Trinseo sees magic triangle in tires evolving
   

9. -Falling rubber prices causing concern in Cambodia